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Three years of support for a joint project on how uncertainty in sea level projections reaches — or fails to reach — the people making decisions.
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The Halloran Foundation has awarded three years of support to a joint project between the marine policy and ocean science departments on the communication of sea level uncertainty.
The problem the project addresses is well recognized and poorly solved. Regional sea level projections carry uncertainty that frequently exceeds their central estimate, and a planner handed a range with no guidance on its use has been given a scientific problem rather than an answer.
"We are very good at producing the range," said Farida Haddad, who leads the science side. "We are much worse at the next step, and the next step is where the decision happens."
The work combines projection development with interviews and structured decision exercises involving municipal planners, emergency managers and coastal engineers in the region. The intended output is not a better projection but a better way of handing one over.
Nathaniel Brooks, who leads the policy side, framed the value of the collaboration in characteristic terms. "It is the most productive difficult conversation any of us are having."
Two graduate students in the MS in Coastal Resilience will be supported by the award. The project runs to 2029.
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